Racing at Del Mar with Marc Doche: Can the Man can continue Baffert dominance in Futurity - Pick 4 Blog
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Racing at Del Mar with Marc Doche: Can the Man can continue Baffert dominance in Futurity

Alberts Hope can solidify his spot as the top juvenile in the West.

Alberts Hope can solidify his spot as the top juvenile in the West.

Winning eleven of seventeen races anywhere is ridiculous. Doing so in a Grade I is stupid.

Such are the numbers for Bob Baffert in the $300,000 Del Mar Futurity, a seven-furlong sprint for juveniles that has become the customary closing day feature for one of the most successful race meets in the world.

In the 66th running of the race Baffert has won the last two years and five of the last six, the silver-haired wizard sends 9-to-2 second choice Can the Man off a debut win as the 2-to-5 favorite on August 17. The Into Mischief colt was purchased for $320,000 at auction earlier this year, but appears to have beaten a rather modest bunch and will have to step things up in a big way.

Perfect through two starts including the major prep for today in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) a month ago, Alberts Hope is the tepid 7-to-2 morning line favorite. It appears the Run Away and Hide gelding will get better as the distances increase, but underneath a rider that has done little right for a prolonged period of time leaves his backers in a tenuous position.

A trio of Cal-breds take a crack here instead of Monday’s restricted I’m Smokin Stakes, with 6-to-1 shot California Chrome the most likely to make an impact after a smart 2 ¾-length score in the Graduation Stakes to close July. The Lucky Pulpit colt also employs a rather unheralded jock around these parts, but the pair earned the strongest stakes Beyer in their last with an 83.

Highly touted going into his debut at Hollywood Park in July, Dance with Fate didn’t lift a hoof while beating just one runner home. However, the Two Step Salsa colt bounced back with a stylish win over this strip on August 11 and would be a fitting culmination on the day Rafael Bejarano is crowned with yet another riding title.

Thre stakes land on the under card, with more juveniles at a mile on turf in the $100,000 Oak Tree Juvenile Turf and older sprinters over six furlongs on Polytrack with females in the C.E.R.F Stakes and males in the $90,000 Pirate’s Bounty Stakes.

We’re off to the races!

Pick 5 –

Leg 1 – Race 1 (6) – No. 6 Gypsy Robin disappointed in her first try after a private purchase by Jim Rome and partners, but the speedy filly has bounced back from poor efforts before and is training like she’s set for her best, which would be much too good for these.

Leg 2 – Race 2 (3,4,6,7) – No. 6 Roveing Patrol is fast and drawn inside the other speed is dangerous if she can clear.

No. 3 Lady Rosamond, No. 4 Majestic Stinger and No. 7 Pebble Beach Baby are the late threats.

Leg 3 – Race 3 (1,2,4,8) – No. 2 Station House and No. 8 Diamond Bachelor were impressive debut winners over this layout, but No. 1 Home School, making his U.S. debut in his sixth career start, and No. 4 Ontology, stretching out in his fourth start, hold the experience edge.

Leg 4 – Race 4 (5,6) – No. 6 Karma King has trained well for potent first-time conditioner Craig Dollase and No. 5 Sawyer’s Hill is the clocker steam horse and son of prolific first-time sire Sprint at Last.

Leg 5 – Race 5 (1,2,6,7,8,9) – Spread in the Pirate’s Bounty with No. 1 Ain’t No Other, No. 2 Private Zone, No. 6 Longview Drive, No. 7 So Brilliant, No. 8 Roman Threat and No. 9 Chiloquin.

Recap – (6) w (3,4,6,7) w (1,2,4,8) w (5,6) w (1,2,6,7,8,9) – Total cost of ticket = $96

Monday’s Result – (-$180)

Total for current Del Mar meet – (-$3,511.80)

Total from 7/20/11 – 7/14/13 – (+$21,364.70)

Late Pick 4 -

Leg 1 – Race 7 (3,4,5,6,7,9,10) – Big spread with Cal-bred maiden females using No. 3 Kana Flavor, No. 4 Heavens Stairway, No. 5 Crystalline Indy, No. 6 Hanserella, No. 7 Yawannagokid, No. 9 Red Red Door and No. 10 Bridle Plan.

Leg 2 – Race 8 (2,3,4,5,8) – Spread in the Futurity with No. 2 Can the Man, No. 3 Dance With Fate, No. 4 Celtic Moon, No. 5 Alberts Hope and No. 8 California Chrome.

Leg 3 – Race 9 (2) – No. 2 Amazing Hearted looks to stay perfect through three starts for Baffert shortening up by half a furlong off an impressive win. He can take the lead early if it’s given to him, but with a pair of speedsters lined up to his outside, can also sit in behind them before making his run.

Leg 4 – Race 10 (1,3,4,7) – Close the meet with No. 1 My Looloo, No. 3 Nickels Wild, No. 4 Switched Up and No. 7 Fanticola.

Recap – (3,4,5,6,7,9,10) w (2,3,4,5,8) w (2) w (1,3,4,7) Total cost of ticket = $70

Monday’s Result – (-$60)

Total for current Del Mar meet – (-$2,438.10)

Total from 12/26/10 – 7/14/13 – (-$6,997.95)

Best Bet of the Day – Can now be found in the Handicapping section at http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/doche/.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @mdoche for last minute changes caused by scratches and much more!

Check out my blogs for America’s Best Racing on www.followhorseracing.com!

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For more Del Mar action check out Jarrod Horak’s Pick 6 Blog.

Good luck!

5 Comments

  1. Steve Brown

    October 5, 2013 at 1:38 am

    Hi Marc,
    When you coming back with your picks?
    Steve

    • Marc

      October 5, 2013 at 2:17 am

      Hey Steve,
      Not sure. On hiatus for now. Been busy with my other work. Hoping to get a blog out for both Breeders’ Cup days and then maybe I’ll start up again for the Santa Anita winter meet. Thanks for your readership and good luck with your wagers.

      • Steve Brown

        October 10, 2013 at 9:17 pm

        Well I hope all works out for you. This is a tough game we play. I’d like to take a shot at the Breeders Cup Pk4′s and 5′s since the pools are outstanding. Great fields and all it takes is a short streak to cash a ticket.
        Good luck and feel free to email me direct at steve@autojobs.com

        Cheers,
        Steve

  2. Resty Reyes

    October 19, 2013 at 3:45 am

    What if Dolphin Shorts won in that race, will they declare it as a non-starter in race 6 Friday race?

  3. Resty reyes

    December 26, 2013 at 5:58 pm

    We’re waiting for your picks. Thanks

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